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GW numbers
For FPL managers. Same match model that prices the markets.
How we worked this out
Match odds come from blended market odds. Average goals are calibrated to the league's average. Player shares, defensive contributions and set-piece roles come from FPL; bonus is modelled from last season.
Doubts for GW
Injury flags and team news from FPL.
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Captain picks
Top 10 by xPts; higher means a stronger points forecast.
How we project points
Appearance points × chance of playing 60+ minutes; goals × position points; assists × 3; clean-sheet chance × position points (60+ minutes only); DEFCON chance × 2; plus expected bonus and keeper saves; minus goals conceded (keepers and defenders) and yellow cards. Goal and assist chances come from goalscorer odds or each player's share of team xG and xA; FPL gives more assists than xA counts, so assists are scaled up to FPL's own rate.
Player lists
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Defensive contributions (DEFCON)
Top 10 defenders and midfielders by chance of earning two points.
Expected bonus
Top 10 by projected FPL bonus points.
Differentials
Top 10 by xPts among players owned by under 5%.
Set pieces & penalties
First-choice takers listed by FPL. A dash means none listed.
Value
Top 10 by xPts per £m, among players projected for 2+ points.
Projection consensus
Public expected-points models, side by side.
Sources: our model, elevenify, Solio Analytics, Fantasy Football Pundit. elevenify publishes no points, so its column is our points formula run on their team goals, clean-sheet chances and player goal and assist rates. FPL form is FPL's own recent-points number, not a projection, so it is never in the mix.
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Clean-sheet chances
Our model, built on blended market odds, is the main figure; elevenify is a separate second opinion.
Goals expected per match
The numbers are expected goals for each side; the bar is the chance of a home win, draw or away win.
Over- and under-performers
Expected involvements (xG + xA) against goals + assists.
Finishing: goals vs xG
Goals against expected goals; above the line means finishing above the chances created.
Creating: assists vs xA
Assists against expected assists; above the line means more assists than the chances created suggest.